Evaluation of MPA designs that protect highly mobile megafauna now and under climate change scenarios

Marine protected area (MPA) designs, including large-scale MPAs (LSMPAs; >150,000 km2), mobile (fluid spatiotemporal boundaries), and MPA networks, may offer different benefits to species could enhance protection by encompassing scales of animal movement. We sought understand how well LSMPAs benefit nine highly-mobile marine in the tropics now into future by: 1) evaluating current range overlap within a LSMPA; 2) under climate change projections; 3) theoretical designs these species. focused on Palmyra Atoll Kingman Reef, 2000 km2 1.2 million U.S. Pacific Remote Islands National Monument (PRIMNM) that contains megafauna (reef pelagic fishes; sea turtles; seabirds; cetaceans) reflecting behaviors habitat use. Our approach is useful for effectiveness Palmyra-Kingman PRIMNM protecting species, tropical general, informing design. Stationary provided at varying scales. Reef manta rays (Mobula alfredi), grey reef sharks (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos), green turtles (Chelonia mydas), bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) had overall small ranges (<100 km from Palmyra-Kingman) stationary contained heterogenous habitats. Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares), sooty terns (Onychoprion fuscatus), red-footed boobies (Sula sula), great frigatebirds (Fregata minor), melon-headed whales (Peponocephala electra) navigated complex oceanographic processes most shift with features thermal fronts, cyclic regions elevated productivity, eddies, if relationships are established predictable. All capacity travel nearby systems, illustrating potential networks corridors. Suitable habitats will likely contract all as warm water expands scenarios (species were predicted decrease 4–49% not protect suitable future. Species requirements movement ecologies critical aspects spatial planning, especially respect dynamic ocean changing climate.